Super Group Stock Has Potential Upside of Nearly 51%, Says Analyst

With the World Cup approaching and more investors becoming aware of the gaming company's advantageous placement in Africa, Super Group (NYSE: SGHC) stock appears to be a possibility for a comeback.

Jordan Bender, an analyst at Citizens Equity Research, has reiterated his "market outperform" rating for Super Group with a price objective of $16 in a recent report to clients. This suggests a 50.9% increase from the stock's current trading level. Super Group, one of the most popular gaming stocks of the previous year, has lost more than 11% so far this year. A short seller's gloomy report from last month is partially to blame for the decrease, and investors' undervaluation of the company's exposure to Africa is another factor.

"The secret sauce of the Betway brand across Africa is the marketing partnerships it holds with global soccer leagues and the South African Premiership,” observes Bender. “The marketing campaigns, including signage and jersey patches, allow it to increase brand recognition across its eight markets, translating into ‘remarkably’ low cost per acquisition and paybacks well exceeding the global average.”

In all of the roughly ten African markets it serves, including South Africa, Super Group is one of the leading providers of online casinos and/or sports betting. The company operates in Canada and Europe, however it is no longer in the US market.

Super Group Stock Could Be Affected by the World Cup

Approximately $900 million, or 40%, of Super Group's income came from Africa last year. With the World Cup approaching, Africa's passion for soccer should spur the stock.

The parent company of Betway has international marketing agreements with English Premier League teams including Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester City that are well-liked by African supporters. Additionally, parlays are quite profitable for operators, and African soccer bettors are passionate about them.

“Parlays represent 67% of handle across Africa, compared to ~30% in the U.S., leading to impressive 18% gross gaming margins (24% for parlays), while ~90% of betting volume comes from soccer,” adds Bender. “The leadership team believes Africa is seeing secular tailwinds with a younger population on average and growing well beyond typical gaming markets.”

Nigeria, the most populated country in Africa and the fourth-largest economy on the continent, may be the next big thing for Super Group, according to the analyst.

“Currently, it holds a high-single-digit market share position with essentially no marketing spend behind the business as it assesses the go-to-market strategy; that said, it will be in a position within the next month or two for the initial wave of investment. Final plans have not been set, yet we believe it will target the middle to upper end of the market,” notes Bender.

Super Group Can Use Technology and Crypto to Succeed in Africa

Super Group introduced the ZAR Supercoin (ZARSC), which is linked to the South African currency, in November. Together with the operator's technological advantages, that cryptocurrency might make it more successful in Africa.

“The crypto integration is already forcing the banks and payment companies to lower payment processing costs through more favorable rates,” concludes Bender. “Additionally, the company does not believe it needs mass adoption to move the needle given the size of the South African market.”