AGA Study Shows Majority of People Want Regulation for Sports Event Contracts

According to a study by the American Gaming Association (AGA), the majority of Americans want the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to put a stop to prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket that offer football event contracts as the new NFL season begins.

Eighty-five percent say they want regulation

Sports event contracts are most like gambling, according to 85% of respondents, while only 6% think they are most like financial instruments, according to AGA study.  Sports event contracts should be regulated like other types of gambling, according to the majority of Americans (80%), while 5% think state and tribal gaming authorities, not the CFTC, should be in charge of this kind of betting.

“This research has made it clear: Americans know a sports bet when they see one – and they expect prediction markets offering sports event contracts to be held to the same rules and consumer safeguards as every other state-regulated sportsbook,” said AGA President and CEO Bill Miller.

NFL Player Props Are Offered via Prediction Markets

The AGA's primary goal is to promote and cultivate an atmosphere that allows for the success of lawful, regulated gambling companies.

Binary event contracts, which are yes/no questions concerning NFL outcomes, are traded on prediction platforms such as Kalshi. In this situation, the contracts are traded like shares on a stock exchange.  This morning, a cursory look at the Kalshi platform reveals deals surrounding every NFL game on Sunday.  For instance, a $100 wager will yield $136 if the Bills win and $371 if the Jets win, as the Bills have a 73% chance of defeating the Jets, with the "yes" being priced at 0.74 cents.

Along with player props like who will score a touchdown, Kalshi also provides spread and total categories.

The main goal of the CFTC is to monitor and control the futures, options, and swaps market in the United States in order to maintain fair trading practices and financial integrity.

The CFTC oversees Football Parlays Kalshi's operations.  The CFTC recently approved Polymarket to launch in the United States.

The popularity of prediction markets has skyrocketed, and venture capital is flooding in on billion-dollar valuations.

“[The AGA research] underscores the need for the CFTC to enforce and uphold its own regulations that prohibit gaming contracts, and for Congress to use its oversight power to ensure prediction markets are not used as a backdoor for gaming,” Miller said.

States Must Be Involved

Additional study headlines include:  Sports event contracts should only be sold by state-licensed sportsbooks in the states where they are offered, according to 84% of Americans and 69% of sports bettors. Additionally, 69% of Americans think that each state should have the authority to decide whether or not sports event contracts can be offered in their jurisdiction.

According to 70% of respondents, prediction sites that sell contracts for sporting events like NFL football are taking advantage of legal gaps to operate as unlicensed bookmakers.